In one of the most striking contradictions of the entire conflict, Iran’s president publicly apologized to Gulf neighbors and pledged to halt strikes against them — only for the Iranian military to continue its campaign within hours. The disconnect sent a clear message to oil markets: no single voice in Tehran speaks for the entire Iranian war machine, and prices above $100 per barrel may be here to stay.
Israeli strikes on oil storage facilities near Tehran killed four workers and left the city blanketed in thick, black smoke. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by threatening to push global oil to $200 per barrel, framing the conflict in explicitly economic terms and warning Gulf states that their own energy infrastructure was vulnerable.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait all came under Iranian fire over the weekend. Saudi defenses intercepted 15 drones, Bahrain’s desalination plant was hit, and two civilians were killed in a Saudi residential neighborhood. A US service member died from wounds sustained in an Iranian attack, the seventh American fatality of the war.
Iran’s clerical assembly simultaneously appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, selecting the late leader’s son in a move unprecedented in the Islamic Republic’s history. His appointment raised immediate questions about whether the new leader would assert control over the military’s operations or allow the current campaign to continue unchecked.
Washington pledged not to target Iranian oil infrastructure and predicted only short-term supply disruptions. But with Iran’s president and military speaking in contradictory voices, and oil above $100 with no ceasefire in sight, markets were pricing in continued uncertainty for the foreseeable future.