The global oil market is in a state of shock, with prices oscillating around $100 a barrel as governments deploy unprecedented emergency measures that have so far been insufficient to fully offset the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict. Brent crude settled around $98 Thursday after briefly crossing $100, as Iran’s continuing attacks on energy targets across the Gulf overwhelmed the stabilizing effect of the IEA’s record reserve release. The event is testing the limits of the policy tools available to oil-consuming nations.
Iranian forces struck merchant vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel storage in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and facilities adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. Three crew members aboard the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports, Bahrain issued shelter-in-place orders, and Oman cleared its main export terminal of vessels.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling at $98. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from $60 at the year’s start to a weekly peak of $119 before partially retreating. Iran’s military warned of $200-per-barrel oil.
The IEA released 400 million barrels from reserves of 32 member nations — a record. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning deliveries within a week over approximately 120 days. President Trump pledged to continue the military campaign and said prices would come down. Iran escalated by warning of $200 oil.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European natural gas gained 7.7%.